The hottest glass industry is struggling to destoc

Difficult de stocking futures in the glass industry need to return to the upward channel

focus on the important news of insulation

the US economy is uncertain, but it is generally better than Europe; Japan's easing policy has achieved initial results, and CPI has decreased year-on-year; European economies are mixed, and the euro zone is expected to cut interest rates strongly

the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the first time fell to 339000 last week, better than expected

the U.S. economy stagnated: durable goods orders fell by 5.7% in March, the largest decline in seven months

Japan's CPI fell year on year in March

global stock markets rose, and many investment banks expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates next week

France's total unemployment rose by 1.2% in March, with 37000 new unemployed. The initial value of UK's leading quarterly GDP annual rate was +0.6%, much higher than the expected +0.3%. Spain's unified quarterly unemployment rate reached 27.2%, the highest since it was officially recorded in 1976

glass index analysis

on the 25th, the "China glass composite index" rose by 1.09 points compared with the previous day, the "China glass price index" rose by 1.31 points, and the "China glass market confidence index" rose by 0.22 points. The glass index continued to rebound, and the confidence index rose. The market still treated the price rise with caution

glass spot situation

on the 25th, most domestic manufacturers increased their prices slightly, the shipment situation was good, and a new round of price rise was slightly emerging. The shipment in East China is good and the inventory is average. After price reduction and promotion in North China, the recent shipment was average, and the inventory returned to normal. The balance of production and sales in Central China has not changed much. Shipments in South China were good, and inventories rose. On the whole, domestic manufacturers' high inventory has decreased after early price reduction and promotion, and some manufacturers have cautiously raised their quotations in the trend of declining industrial products. It is expected that they will still maintain a steady pace of slight adjustment in the near future

demand for glass

the mentality of demand enterprises is not optimistic. Holding money to fall is the main theme, and it is uncertain whether the inventory will continue to move down significantly

the rest maintained yesterday's view: the "five national policies" stimulated the rise in house prices. In March, the number of cities with rising house prices accounted for an absolute majority, and among the cities with year-on-year rising prices, the highest increase was 11.2%. However, from the perspective of the transaction area of commercial housing last week, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen all fell by a large margin on a month on month basis, of which Beijing fell by 40.05%, and the transaction area of most other major cities in China rose slightly on a month on month basis. On the whole, the transaction area of real estate is stable and positive, with slight adjustment on a weekly basis

in the first quarter, the preliminary calculation showed that the growth rate of GDP was 1.6% month on month, which was lower than the growth rate of each quarter in the past two years. The growth rate of fixed asset investment dropped somewhat, and the lack of macro demand for building materials will continue to exist

the executive meeting of the State Council held that "in the first quarter, the national economy operated smoothly and generally well, and the main indicators such as economic growth rate and new urban employment were stable within a reasonable range. At present, the shutdown conditions shown in my view are that the parameter country is in an important stage of industrialization and urbanization, the economic transformation and upgrading is in a critical period, and there is great potential and space for development". The long-term demand for glass is still betting on urbanization, and the short-term impact of this long-term stimulus should be treated with caution

glass futures situation

on the 25th, glass futures rose steadily after breaking the previous day's settlement price. Affected by the stability of spot and the effect before the holiday, the demand for short-term rebound was strong. In September, the contract rose by 17 yuan/ton, or 1.27%, to close at 1352 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 20% compared with the previous day, and 31566 positions were reduced. In January, the contract rose by 14 yuan/ton, or 1.04%, to close at 1361 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was reduced by 20% compared with the previous day. 2. The contract made tightening experiments on various tightening springs. Due to differences in the effect, task conditions and nature of each friction pair, 1478 positions were increased. The spot market is stable, glass futures are sorted out in the bull confidence area, and the rebound demand before the holiday is strong. There is room for arbitrage in September

summary

the early price reduction and promotion stimulated the short-term market demand, and the market confidence recovered. The glass inventory in all regions of the country returned to normal, and there was no ultra-high inventory. Yesterday, major production enterprises across the country raised their prices to varying degrees, and a new round of price rise appeared slightly. However, downstream demand enterprises are in a strong mood to hold money to fall. Whether enterprise inventory continues to be transferred to traders in large quantities depends on whether the demand actually picks up. On the whole, the glass industry will still struggle to destock, and it still takes time for futures to return to the upward channel. Before the May Day holiday, the demand for rebound in the futures market was strong. Empty orders were only allowed to enter the market. Short-term multiple orders were allowed to enter the market with caution. Long-term multiple orders could be gradually established with the support of 1322

today's investment proposal

the fall in the days before the festival is much shorter

Author: ZHAOFEI (Xi'an Business Department of Wanda futures) the content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment suggestions. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk

Zhonghua glass () Department